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April 20, 2015

TP increased on earnings upward revision

We have increased the TP for Mostotrest by 4%, from RUB 127 to RUB 133 per share. The increase is the result of the upward revision of our financial outlook, mainly due to a faster project completion over 2015-2017. The new TP suggests a 54% upside potential for common shares and we reiterate our BUY recommendation.

We expect Mostotrest shares to outperform the market over 2Q 15. Although we expect relatively low tender activity over 2Q and 3Q, we think that attractive dividend yield could be a short term share price driver. We remind that the company BOD recommended to pay RUB 7.09 per share, suggesting an 8% dividend yield (record date was set on May 25). Besides, start of a toll collection of M-11 head segment scheduled for July 1 could also have a positive impact on the share price, in our view.

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April 3, 2015

TP for Global Ports GDRs decreased on financial forecast revision

We have decreased Global Ports TP by 55%, from USD 13.70 to USD 6.15 per GDR, due to a financial forecast downward revision and an upward revision of WACC. We also adjusted our financial model due to mandatory adoption of IFRS 11 standard, by deconsolidating VEOS and Finnish Ports. The new TP suggests a 20% upside potential, and we reiterate our HOLD recommendation for the name.

Although we think that shares are currently fair valued, we believe that the RUB strengthening could be a driver for company shares over the medium term. We do see share price drivers as company is expected not to pay dividend for 2015 and probably for 2016, as it will focus on debt repayment. At the same time, the possibility of an additional shares issue could put pressure on the share price when the Board approves the placement.

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April 1, 2015

Mixed showing in April expected

We expect automotive stocks to put in a mixed performance in April. We believe AvtoVAZ shares could outperform the market as the company should continue to gain market share and benefit from preferential auto loan program launch. Sollers could perform in line with the market on weak car sales.

Sector: Automotive